In the first edition of Quakes Talk round-tables, beat reporters Colin Etnire, Elliot Almond, and Robert Jonas joined me for a round of preseason predictions. Feel free to hold these over our heads at the end of the season!
Robert Jonas, Center Line Soccer
1) Where do you see the Quakes finishing in the Western Conference?
The Earthquakes set out this off-season to add depth throughout the entire roster. Head coach Dominic Kinnear used wording like “competition” and “cover” to describe the club’s plan, and he and general manager John Doyle have seemed to pull it off. The revamped roster gives the Quakes the ability to put out a Starting XI week in and week out, even when there are absences and injuries, that still has the quality to compete in a competitive Western Conference. This is not a top-heavy roster, and, as such, I expect that the Quakes can be consistent throughout the season and finish as high as third place.
2) Your prediction for the Quakes’ MVP this season?
Goal-scorers get all the love when it comes to MVP voting, but I predict this season the team’s award will go to its midfield leader Anibal Godoy. The Panamanian was a revelation when he joined the team last summer, and getting him for a full season in San Jose will really show off his influence on those around him. At times last year, Godoy could be seen clearly barking out directions to rookies Fatai Alashe and Marc Pelosi. He also gained the trust of the veteran defenders behind him and the forward corps in front. Much of the Quakes’ success this season will hinge on how Godoy’s contributions continue in 2016.
3) Your prediction for surprise standouts?
Two newcomers and one “old hand” will turn heads this season: Chad Barrett and Alberto Quintero, as well as Tommy Thompson. It was a shrewd bit of business grabbing Barrett when free agency opened in December, and securing Quintero on loan continued that trend of wise spending. As projected bench players to start the season, Barrett and Quintero will certainly get their minutes and may even be starters before long. Thompson, now in his third year with San Jose, is still only 20 years old, but he needs to show he can compete for a starting position. He did a lot in the off-season to prepare for this year, and I expect he will make a big leap in his production for the Quakes.
4) What is this team’s most important area for improvement?
It may seem counterintuitive, but flooding the roster with midfielders and forwards is really going to pay dividends this season. Securing Simon Dawkins was a big signing for San Jose, especially given his familiarity with MLS, and his composure on the ball will allow his teammates time to move into attacking positions. Matias Perez Garcia can do the same, though the outcome was typically a foul suffered, giving the Quakes a set-piece opportunity. Add in the talents of Godoy in more of a holding role, and you have a stacked midfield. Until Innocent regains his health, San Jose will not be fielding a very speedy squad, so they need guys that can play on the ball to open up the field for others.
5) Last season, Wondolowski scored more than 30% of the Quakes’ league goals — will Wondo reach double-digits again given the changes up front with Innocent and Dawkins?
Yes, though I predict Wondolowski will not lead the team in scoring in 2016. That honor will go to Quincy Amarikwa, who, despite not being the primary penalty-kick taker — Wondo is still the man from the spot — will be the tip of the Quakes attacking spear until Innocent can overthrow him at that position. The only danger to Wondolowski’s quest to score in double-digits for the seventh straight MLS season is whether or not he can hold his own spot in the Starting XI. Wondo just turned 33 years old, and he has quite a few younger teammates that will want minutes as an attacker. If the Quakes’ MVP stays healthy and hungry this season, he will no doubt break the dozen goal barrier.
6) Prediction for league goals scored in 2016 (note: 2015 tally was 41)?
The Earthquakes averaged 56 goals per season in Dawkins’ last run with the club, and I suspect the team will approach that tally in 2016. To the concern of some, San Jose did not score a single goal against MLS competition this preseason, getting shutout three times in three matches, but that will change when the games count. Though not built to outplay opponents like the 2012 edition, these Quakes will have their chances on offense and will score 50+ goals this season.
Colin Etnire, The Aftershock Podcast
1) Where do you see the Quakes finishing in the Western Conference?
Fourth. Portland’s starting XI is amongst the very best in MLS, Bruce Arena is still the best in the business and aggressively moved to fix Galaxy’s flaws in the offseason, and FC Dallas is still totally loaded. I don’t see the Quakes as belonging in that group yet. Of the remaining “good” teams, Seattle is in a major transitional period and Vancouver didn’t appear to do much to get better, so I’d put the Quakes in that tier. Kansas City, Houston, Colorado, and RSL all have significant question marks, and I see them finishing outside the playoff spots.
2) Your prediction for the Quakes’ MVP this season?
Clarence Goodson. He finished second on my MVP ballot last season, and I actually regret not giving him the number 1 nod. He was completely irreplaceable. I see this year’s squad as also being defense-first, and if they are going to improve going forward, that means the back line is going to have to do just as well with less support. Goodson, who is an under-appreciated talent, calms everything around him and doesn’t rely on youthful athleticism to command a game. He won’t win the award, but he will fit the definition of “most valuable.”
3) Your prediction for surprise standouts?
Is Innocent a legitimate answer to that question? I think people have forgotten how much ability he has. If he ever gets back to being fully healthy, he’ll take the season by storm. I’m betting on Tommy Thompson to take a step forward too, but the expectations for him have always been so high I don’t think that’ll be a surprise. My two dark-horse surprise candidates are Mark Sherrod, who I still think we’ve yet to see fully fit, and Matheus Silva, who has all the raw tools to be a monster.
4) What is this team’s most important area for improvement?
Creating goals when the other team is sitting back. The Quakes only managed to create goals from counter-attacking or set-piece opportunities last year, which worked well enough when they were level or ahead, but was a disaster when they had to come from behind or chase all three points. That wasn’t surprising, of course, with very few players who were comfortable on the ball or highly technical. Simon Dawkins, Alberto Quintero, Innocent, or an emergent Thompson could change that dynamic.
5) Last season, Wondolowski scored more than 30% of the Quakes’ league goals — will Wondo reach double-digits again given the changes up front with Innocent and Dawkins?
I bet Wondo hits the 10 goal mark, but his percentage will absolutely be down. Lots of other avenues for the goals to run through.
6) Prediction for league goals scored in 2016 (note: 2015 tally was 41)?
47. I don’t think the team will be quite as incompetent at scoring as they were last year, but I still see it as a defensively-oriented side.
Elliot Almond, San Jose Mercury News
1) Where do you see the Quakes finishing in the Western Conference?
They will be a bubble team again finishing fifth, sixth or just out of the playoffs in seventh.
2) Your prediction for the Quakes’ MVP this season?
David Bingham.
3) Your prediction for surprise standouts?
Chad Barrett and Andres Imperiale.
4) What is this team’s most important area for improvement?
A formidable corps of attacking players.
5) Last season, Wondolowski scored more than 30% of the Quakes’ league goals — will Wondo reach double-digits again given the changes up front with Innocent and Dawkins?
Yes. Chris has a chance to be even more effective with the improved frontline. He scored 27 goals when the Quakes offense was at its best in 2012.
6) Prediction for league goals scored in 2016 (note: 2015 tally was 41)?
It’s impossible to guess but I’ll play along and say 51 goals.
Alex Morgan, Quakes Talk
1) Where do you see the Quakes finishing in the Western Conference?
Fourth. There’s little doubt that this is a playoff-calibre team and maybe even a dark-horse to mount a title challenge at full strength. I think they may struggle early on to find their rhythm and the right starting lineup but if they can find their feet relatively quickly then there shouldn’t be any reason that they cannot finish comfortably in a playoff position.
2) Your prediction for the Quakes’ MVP this season?
While the MVP awards are generally focused on the forwards, I think David Bingham could become the team’s most valuable asset this coming season. He grew into the position well last season despite an early injury, and gradually assumed a leadership role, learning to shoulder the blame when appropriate and adopting a team-first mentality. He has already proved his reliability and I don’t think that we have seen the best of Bingham yet.
3) Your prediction for surprise standouts?
Shea Salinas. I think we all know what Shea Salinas can and cannot do as a pacy winger, but I argue that his enormous influence last season was not fully appreciated. He played more minutes than any other midfielder and played a direct part in eight goals, even recording an assist against Manchester United. Given the additions of Simon Dawkins, Alberto Quintero and Innocent’s return from injury, many see Salinas playing a role from the bench at times; however, as one of the team’s most reliable starters last year, I could see him successfully retaining his starting position and at very least having a sizable impact off the bench.
Should Bingham be called up for the Copa Centenario, I think Andrew Tarbell will also impress should he be given valuable playing time and Quintero will also mount a formidable challenge for a starting position.
4) What is this team’s most important area for improvement?
In recent years, the Quakes have almost always suffered rough spells in the summer and I think they have to focus on consistency throughout the summer this season should they wish to comfortably finish near the top end of the table.
5) Last season, Wondolowski scored more than 30% of the Quakes’ league goals — will Wondo reach double-digits again given the changes up front with Innocent and Dawkins?
The entire offensive dynamic will shift this season with the new additions. Kinnear has already experimented with a 3-5-2 to fit all their offensive players into the starting lineup and it’s unlikely that we’ll see the flat 4-4-2 again anytime soon. Wondo will still reach double digits regardless of the formation changes, but I do think this season will be the start of a wider shift away from the Quakes’ reliance on their main man and that he won’t be their top scorer this coming season.
6) Prediction for total league goals scored in 2016 (note: 2015’s tally was 41)?
The Quakes have the deepest attacking force since the days of the Goonies back in 2012, and barring a systematic failure, they are unlikely to suffer such a traumatic dry spell as they did last summer. I see this team notching ten more goals than last year, and if Innocent Emeghara can slot neatly back into the starting eleven, potentially approaching their tally of fifty-seven in the 2012 regular season.
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